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docs: refresh RFQ shadow record (294550 requests)
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‎content/docs/kalshi/rfq-shadow-record.md‎

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@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ tags:
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- trading
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---
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**Last updated 2026-09-19 04:43 UTC. This page rebuilds itself every hour.**
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**Last updated 2026-09-19 05:44 UTC. This page rebuilds itself every hour.**
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A recorder watches Kalshi's parlay request feed continuously and writes to a
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local store. Once an hour that store is re-read, the charts below are redrawn,
@@ -60,14 +60,14 @@ the request appears and again after it closes, and an increase means it filled.
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| | |
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| --- | ---: |
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| Requests seen | 293,572 |
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| Closed (no longer accepting bids) | 292,675 |
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| Followed through their full lifecycle | 291,976 |
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| Confirmed executed | 88,460 |
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| Requests seen | 294,550 |
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| Closed (no longer accepting bids) | 293,558 |
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| Followed through their full lifecycle | 292,810 |
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| Confirmed executed | 88,693 |
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| Earliest request | 2026-09-07 17:41:26 |
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| Most recent request | 2026-09-19 04:38:53 |
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| Most recent request | 2026-09-19 05:42:27 |
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| Median edge to the seller | +0.46 cents per contract |
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| Total edge on executed requests | $109,855.93 |
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| Total edge on executed requests | $109,942.27 |
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## How many bets are bundled together
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@@ -76,20 +76,20 @@ three-leg parlay.
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<svg viewBox="0 0 680 230" role="img" aria-label="number of requests, by how many legs the parlay had" style="width:100%;height:auto;max-width:680px">
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<text x="47" y="154.0" text-anchor="end" font-size="9" font-family="monospace" fill="var(--gray)">11608</text>
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<text x="161.4" y="209" text-anchor="middle" font-size="9" font-family="monospace" fill="var(--gray)">4</text>
@@ -99,7 +99,7 @@ three-leg parlay.
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<text x="222.8" y="209" text-anchor="middle" font-size="9" font-family="monospace" fill="var(--gray)">6</text>
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<rect x="242.8" y="122.1" width="21.5" height="73.9" fill="var(--secondary)" rx="2"/>
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<text x="253.5" y="209" text-anchor="middle" font-size="9" font-family="monospace" fill="var(--gray)">7</text>
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<text x="315.0" y="209" text-anchor="middle" font-size="9" font-family="monospace" fill="var(--gray)">9</text>
@@ -109,7 +109,7 @@ three-leg parlay.
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<text x="376.4" y="209" text-anchor="middle" font-size="9" font-family="monospace" fill="var(--gray)">11</text>
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<text x="468.4" y="209" text-anchor="middle" font-size="9" font-family="monospace" fill="var(--gray)">14</text>
@@ -139,28 +139,28 @@ sport, which is common: a baseball game stapled to a college football spread.
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<svg viewBox="0 0 680 230" role="img" aria-label="number of requests by sport" style="width:100%;height:auto;max-width:680px">
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<text x="47" y="199.5" text-anchor="end" font-size="9" font-family="monospace" fill="var(--gray)">0</text>
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<text x="79.6" y="209" text-anchor="middle" font-size="9" font-family="monospace" fill="var(--gray)">mixed</text>
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<text x="181.9" y="209" text-anchor="middle" font-size="9" font-family="monospace" fill="var(--gray)">mlb</text>
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@@ -15335,6 +15335,7 @@ collected the difference.
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@@ -15431,6 +15432,37 @@ collected the difference.
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<text x="213.0" y="258" text-anchor="middle" font-size="9" font-family="monospace" fill="var(--gray)">28</text>
@@ -15449,15 +15481,15 @@ risking about $50 to win $500.
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| | requests | median | largest |
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| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
15452-
| Payout if it wins | 92888 | $286 | $421,421 |
15453-
| Amount staked | 200684 | $10.00 | $50,070.00 |
15484+
| Payout if it wins | 93076 | $286 | $421,421 |
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| Amount staked | 201474 | $10.00 | $50,070.00 |
1545415486

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These are small. A median payout in the hundreds of dollars is recreational
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betting, not institutional flow.
1545715489

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## Bundles whose legs are related
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**28,838** of 293,572 requests have two or more legs on the same game.
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**28,865** of 294,550 requests have two or more legs on the same game.
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This is the known weak point in the fair value above. Two bets on the same game
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are not independent: if a team is winning, several legs move together. Real odds

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